Grand National Meeting

It's been another fantastic week of top quality horse racing at Aintree. Climaxing at the notorious Grand National on Saturday. Somehow I picked the winner Ballabriggs this year, but was far from confident so I just had a cheeky fiver e/w fun bet. He jumped like a stag and was always looking in contention from the get go.

With all the glam and prestige surrounding the Grand National, we do witness many horses getting badly hurt or even die from this race every year. I think there was 2 that had to be put down this year. So it does beg the question whether to make the course a bit safer for future Grand Nationals. I hate to see these animals land so horribly after a bad jump, but I can't see whoever is in charge rushing to change things any time soon.

I found the Grand National itself very difficult to trade too be honest although I didn't expect much from the race before hand anyways. The high prices/ lack of movement and equal spread of liquidity across countless horses doesn't really suit my trading style too be honest. I have evolved into more of a swing trader over the years and the mad moving markets are more my cuppa tea.

I had a good festival, but didn't reach the heights I achieved at Cheltenham. The first few days went really well but I struggled a little bit on the Saturday to make the most out of a few opportunities. I might look into trading on Betdaq for bigger meetings in the future, as the volumes are apparently a bit more manageable for trading. A healthy amount of liquidity, but not too much sounds quite appealing to me.

It does come down to expectation as well I believe, and I do tend to raise the bar a bit for bigger meetings. Pushing myself can be a positive thing most of the time, but on the Saturday I tried a bit too hard to create opportunities which simply weren't there to take. The only way you can really get on a roll with trading race after race, is to let the opportunities come to you and pounce on them when they arise. When you increase your stakes more profits can be achieved, but this also creates more risk. A double edged sword in which the smallest mistakes can be the difference between a big profit on a race or a break even.

All in all I've had a good week, but I am naturally quite competitive so I'm quite hard on myself at times. I try to never get complacent as this can be very dangerous for your mindset, and I'm constantly looking to work on the holes in my game which I can improve on. The biggest lesson I have taken out of this years Aintree meeting, is to focus on my trading strengths and work to them. I'm going to try and Identify which races I can be really aggressive in, and know which races I need to treat with caution. This should stop me being too aggressive in markets that hold a little too much risk.

My best result over the 3 days came on the 7th:

 
I'm not sure what happened in the race that made Baby Run hit 8.4! If a bot made a mistake or a combination of people needed to close their positions out? But I couldn't understand it when I looked at the graph after the race. I thought Baby Run was travelling really well throughout so it makes me think it was more of a mistake with a bit of a mad spike. I'm quite tempted to have a go with small stakes in running again when I see things like this. Problem is it takes a different kind of mindset to succeed in running than it does pre - race. I have tried doing both in conjunction with each other in the past at a trading cafe, but I found it quite difficult to go from one mindset to the other. You have no time to even breathe between each race, but saying that I might give it a go again out of interest. Maybe adopt a slightly less active approach in running and stick very small stakes. I'll mention it again if I decide to give it a go.

Cheerio

10k @ 1.01 please

A friend of mine has just moved out to Sweden and he was flying through Amsterdam to get there. So I thought it would be rude not to go with him for a few days to send him off in style hehe. I forgot how mad that weird and wonderfully place is! I vaguely remember the last time I was in the Dam which was back when I was 18. I went there with 8 of my mates and well, as you can imagine fun times! This time was more a few days of chill and relaxing. It's a beautiful place to visit if anyone is thinking of having a few days away.

Good Times A Rolling

After a big meeting like Cheltenham, I always remind myself to take things a little bit steady in the markets until I get my breath back. It can be easy to get carried away when starting to trade the markets again just like you were doing in Cheltz. So after a chilled out weekend I thought I better get back to it and didn't expect much from the day knowing Aintree is on 2moro. But I thought today was damn tasty too be honest. It felt like the start of good times to come, with the sun shining outside and some really nice moves to get stuck into in the markets. It brought me back to memories in Madrid and how much better I feel when the sun decides to say hello.

Ouch!

I noticed 1.01 getting turned over today in running at Nottingham. Amazing how often this actually happens and this time a combination of people got stung for a cool 10k! Who would back 1.01? God only knows =/

Turnover

I've never been a massive stats man or one that cares too much about how much my turnover is on the day. Either how much percentage of my bank I am using or how much my ROI is. These things just seem a little tedious to me but if that's your thing then knock yourself out. Of course I pay close attention to my staking plan and controlling how I trade in a race, but I'm referring to analysing results after the day. I mean maybe I could improve some of my results after spending hours analysing what I'm doing, but too be honest my take on it is life's too short and I'd rather have a beer with my mates thanks. That said I did notice something quite interesting on 2 races today. I basically reached nearly identical totals on both races, but the total turnover on each was very different. It all comes down to what style you decide to adopt in a particular race which determines the amount of turnover that is achieved. Different markets can also offer you more opportunities to turnover your bank at a faster rate, but it also sometimes comes down to simply making a conscious decision to trade one way or another.

The race below shows me consciously deciding to take a long term view on the market. Opening a few positions up and looking for the big move going in one direction. Instead of sneaking in and out and turning over more of my bank. The point I'm trying to make here, is I'd recommend spending more time on improving your styles/techniques and strategies, more than worrying too much about small differences in percentage turnover on your day. Nice profits can still be achieved on relitively low turnover totals. This total below was only £1250 matched on the back side and £1350 matched on the lay side. 

In comparison the race below was an example where I still was looking for the swings, but I made a conscious decision to try and turn over more of my bank. The main reason for this was as I wasn't as sure of the overall direction of the market compared to the previous example. So in this case I was cutting out for smaller profits, turning over more of my bank, but as you can see the profit is nearly identical. This time £6147 was matched on the back side and £6244 on the lay side. That might sound like a lot of money, but I can easily turnover a lot more than that in a race but only when the market allows me to. Funny thing is though that doesn't necessarily mean x amount more profit. At the end of the day the overall profit is more important than your actual turnover.

On swing markets you can afford to look for more of a longer term move, and be able to hang onto your position longer with the aim to look for more profits. This will inevitably mean you won't turnover much of your bank, but who really cares :) In scalping markets you need to turnover a large amount due to the fact you are only looking for 1/2 tick profits. But also you will scratch a lot which boosts the total up even more.

Anyways Aintree starts 2moro and I'm really looking forward to the Grand National Meeting. I'll tell you right now....as far as a pure horse racing spectacle, you won't see a better horse racing card on any day of the year than what is on show 2moro. A lot of the big boys who ran at Cheltenham are lined up and I'm pretty excited!

Ohh and I've just noticed Woolcombe Folly is 8.0 on BF in the 16:15 Aintree. He's high in the weights but I'm having some of that fo sho. Seems massive price! He was unlucky in the Champion Chase at Cheltz after being bashed about in running and I think should destroy this field even at top weight. I'll be having a go on a few multiples as well 2moro which have been proving a nice little earner recently. Good luck all!

Fingers crossed the markets will be just as mouth watering!

Cheltenham - Day Four

I took a few days off after trading this weeks Cheltenham festival. It was a great week but it was definitely energy sapping that's for sure. I've been catching up with a few things at STJ over the weekend and thought I should make a post about the last day before all is forgotten.

Cheltenham is without a doubt the highlight of the horse racing calendar and the final day didn't disappoint. The gold cup was a truly fantastic race that saw Long Run, the baby at only 6 years old smash the old boys of Denman and Kauto Star.

Kauto travelled like a dream in the race and looked back to his best, but he's lost that turn of foot over the last 2 hurdles where he couldn't hold off the cavalry. Denman is still a beast of a horse and will still give any horse a close race even at the tender age of 11. Denman's raced fewer times than the classy Kauto, so there's still a few more very top races left in the tank. I won't be giving up on one of my favourite horses just yet. I must say it's a pleasure to see the old guns back to somewhere near there best and my hat goes off to Mr Nicholls for keeping these wonderful animals on show year after year.

The Gold Cup went to a very deserving victor though and too be honest Long Run could be the best chaser we have ever seen. Due to how long he's still got left in racing and what he has achieved already. I think he's still improving and didn't even jump brilliantly half way round the course. Alarmingly to every other chaser around, this horse could be winning many more group 1 races with ease. He's got an engine like no other and I can't see any other horse other than the upcoming Diamond Harry challenging his unstoppable status. Time will tell :)

I didn't build up a great trading total on the Gold Cup race, so I thought I would stick with Long Run. But I was worried with Imperial Commander returning back to full fitness so kept my money on those two.

I did a few multiple bets on the Friday and I nearly hit another great £400+ return off a £10 stake.

I did a £2.5 Win Trixie with Long Run, Bob's Worth and Baby Run.

It was a bit painful to see Baby Run fall at the last when looking a clear winner. But I had to take that one the chin.

My best race came from the 14:40. It was one of my fancies on the day - Bob's Worth. I traded well pre race and too be honest I couldn't resist leaving all my profit on him this time. I was in a giddy mood and felt like trying to hit the jackpot. Luckily he ran like a stag and my profit looked safe from half way round the course. Well as safe as you can be when your profits on one horse :p 

In the Conditional Jockeys Hurdle I witnessed an unbelievable ride and performance by Sir Des Champs. Wow I think the horse was around 25 lengths down and somehow got up on the line to sneak the win. I was in shock watching that race and there always seems to be one ride like that every festival that blows me away. It looked like there were some burnt fingers too when I looked at the Betfair graph. It hit 75.0 and there was half decent money matched all the way down the ladder. OUCH!

All in all I was very happy with the week and really enjoyed the racing as usual. But it's back to normality now for a little while as we experience some very average meetings again. Saying that Cheltenham does tend to kick off the more liquid meetings coming up soon. So all good in the hood! I hope everyone who tackled Cheltenham learnt a lot about the more liquid markets and hopefully will know what to expect in the bigger meetings coming up in the summer.

Cheltenham - Day Two & Three

Day Two

 

After a nice start to my fun bets on the first day, my e/w shots didn't perform yesterday unfortunately. No excuses really, it was just an impressive clean sweep for the Irish who dominated all of the races.

I started the trading day steady enough, but unlike the first day I got quite stuck into the other meetings on the card on Wednesday. Which I found to be more profitable overall than the races that I traded at Cheltenham. These races lacked the huge liquidity, but this actually helped me out too be honest. It was easier to get filled and there were some huge over reactions in some markets that I caught some tasty swings on.

I was struggling to get filled at Cheltenham and it was like slow motion trading for a while. This played on my mind a bit which I will talk about soon. The reason for the poor fill rate is because the markets are getting dramatically manipulated and its quite astonishing the effect this is having on everything. There's actually more money sat in the queues than any other Cheltenham I can remember, but actually less overall turnover and fill rate. This observation is almost a contradiction in itself as more money should mean more activity in general. Let me explain further:

When a market gets aggressively manipulated, the money that is sat around in the queues is a false representation of the genuine/or even traders money in that market. The huge amounts you see are often nothing more than market domination by one, or several bots controlling things for their own benefit. As crazy as that sounds! A money machine that seems to be created to trap people into taking losses. They do this by using large orders on several runners to control the market book and push it in their favour. I'm sorry if I lost you there =/

However it's not like they always get away with this kind of activity. What I think happens is they win big but also lose big too. They surely must be winning more than they are losing though as they are still around with their apparently limitless Betfair bank. When they can't hold a market in position, they need to fight their own orders which results in them chasing their losses. So opportunities are here to be had when this occurs but this only happens when there is enough resistance battling against this manipulation. A game and cat and mouse it would seem.

The problem this caused me on Wednesday was I lost my patience, and got too aggressive in the markets. This led me to struggle to keep my profit in tact in the later Cheltenham races. It felt like a roller coaster for an hour or so and was hard on the mind. I basically let my emotions control my actions too much and if you let your head go, everything else will spiral out on control. Luckily I noticed what I was doing and finished alright on the day considering my yo yo hour.

Day Three

 

The fill rate was still a bit poor at Cheltz but the big thing really was controlling my green zone better when I was already in profit. I wasn't too happy with my performance at Cheltz yesterday, so I decided to adopt a slightly different approach. I toned down my aggressiveness and kept a close eye on not over staking in markets which were slow at taking orders. This helped me reach a more consistent day, even though the profits on the races weren't as big. I felt more in control of my game plan and emotions today, and these two go hand in hand. It's a constant mind battle this trading lark and you have you keep a close eye on how you are behaving in certain scenarios. If you choose to ignore your emotions, the market becomes your worst nightmare and you lose all rational thoughts on what you should be doing. I made sure from the get go that my mind was focused and my emotions were calm and collected. 

The big one today produced a cracking race- The 15:20 World Hurdle. Big Bucks was clear favourite at just above 2.0 with around 20 mins to go and it looked like a gamble all day long. I worked myself into a nice position getting a few orders matched about 2.02. I was sure a gamble looked obvious and I was waiting for it to develop. Problem was the manipulation got hold of it and after a small steam to around the 1.96 mark, it was eventually pushed out above 2.0 near the off. An annoying race in which I turned a £150 all into a £30 all as I thought the market was going to come down for ages! I was quite amazed it went back above 2.0 too be honest but hey, not to be. This was a great example of when the manipulation wins the battle. 

Big Bucks again proved to us just how good he was by beating the up and coming superstar Grand Crus. The grey will be winning a World Hurdle soon I'm sure, but the young pretender wasn't going to overturn the champ just yet. Big Bucks found another turn of foot when Grand Crus came up against him at the last, and wow I still think he's got more in that endless tank of his. Pure class that horse and a joy to watch!

So we have one more day at Cheltz ladies and gents and I'm sure the fill rate will be a bit better tomorrow (lets hope) I've learnt a few lessons over the past few days, but also experienced many a smile :)

Let's see if I can get anything out of my last cheeky multiple on Gold Cup day:

13:30 - Sam Winner

14:05 - Alarazi

14:40 - Bobs Worth

15:20 - Long Run

16:00 - Baby Run

Enjoy tomorrow all, and good luck if you are trading the last day at Cheltz.