It's been a nervous lead up to the festival this year with Betfair's unexpected recent down time, so it was a pleasant surprise to receive an apology from them in response to my last blog post. Haha I doubt it was anything to do with my rambles on the subject but it was certainly coincidental anyways. Link here:
https://promotions.betfair.com/explanation
Plus they are also running the first decent promotion that I can remember that is really beneficial to us traders over Cheltz-
"We have listened to your feedback and, in recognition of your loyalty, we would like to offer you a 100% commission refund on a selection of this week's top markets."
That's more like it Betfair! Maybe my rambles weren't a waste of time after all ;)
£7 Boomer!
I always have a few cheeky bets over the Cheltz week and I landed a fantastic e/w multiple today.
Selections:
13:30 - Sprinter Sacre
14:05 - Captain Chris
14:40 - Bensalem
15:20 - Peddler's Cross
17:15 - Quantativeeasing
My stakes were -
50p E/W cross 4 folds.
£1 E/W acc.
Total - £7
2 won and the rest placed so the place part of the bet totaled an absolute gem of £275.32. Woooop!
 | Settled | Ref Id | Placed | Description | Avg. Odds | Stake | Status | DR (£) | CR (£) | Balance (£) | | |
| 2011-03-15 17:29 | 21328252 | 2011-03-15 17:29 | Transfer from Multiples, Multiples Bet Id 21328252 | - | - | - | 275.32 |
This finished off a great start to the festival and I'll add my selections below for tomorrow. Let's see if I can continue the good fortune. Follow me in at your own peril though I must add.
I don't fancy as many on the card tomorrow, but I think these 3 have a great chance of placing and are all priced around the 8/1 mark.
14:40 - Aiteen Thirtythree
15:20 - Woolcombe Folly
17:15 - Raise The Beat
Bensalem Beauty!
It took me about an hour to find a groove in the markets today, but I did expect that too be honest. Nothing compares to Cheltenham and we have been so used to trading very average meetings over the past few months. The first day is always a bit of a warm up really, so If you found things hard going today just stay positive as you will gradually feel more comfortable playing in these markets as the week progresses.
The high odds on these big events are quite hard to try and work yourself into a nice position. For a few reasons - They often don't move much, the price takes up a lot of liability of your bank to be sat around in queues, and also orders can take a while to get matched. So patience is key really in these, and I would recommend you sit in a few queue positions and keep an eye on if the market feels solid. Then start to become active scalping around the available when things pick up a bit and the prices are staying within an obvious range. Also don't be scared to join the back of a big order if the market is very stable, ie. 10k. When the fill rate is good, you can still get some nice scalps away even behind big money.
You can still look out for market moves on runners though which have blatant public interest on. But I would say you have to take a more of a long term view on these if you are looking to ride a swing, due to the high amount of liquidity on both sides of the book. If there's momentum behind it, you can get a nice swing out of being prepared to wait in an open position.
My best result today came in the 14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase. I have really fancied Bensalem all week and if the horse didn't fall last time round at the festival, it could/should have easily won that race a year ago. So the way I viewed it was this was an overpriced selection and the market didn't properly take this into consideration. Without a win at Cheltenham, the horse was not in the public eye like many other runners on the day. It felt like 'the forgotten horse' as it were, so that 6/1 or 5/1 available @ many bookies easily could have been 3/1 if Bensalem didn't fall last year. Massive value I thought and I couldn't resist having a win single on the little beauty too.
Trading pre race, I built up a nice hedge amount of around £90 all, but I decided to try and maximise my profit by going in play with the full amount riding on him. I ended up backing a few runners as well in the race for small stakes that looked strong to cover all angles, but made sure I kept most of the profit on Bensalem. Unfortunately I couldn't hedge up for small stakes on the outsider 'The Rainbow Hunter'. Which left me with too much profit on that runner. Oops but no complaints I was very chuffed with the final result:
I will look to adopt this technique on a few other runners I fancy this week. However this approach is backing up my own opinion that certain horses will travel well in that race, if not win it. So I'll only do this on horses I think have a really good chance.
STJ Cheltenham Offer
Better late than never hey!
I've decided to run a Sports Trading Journey Cheltenham offer that will be available from the 16th - 21st March.
If you are interested in learning how to trade from either the very beginning/ or alternatively you are a trader searching for new angles and techniques to implement into your own game, please visit the link below for more details.
10% Off 'STJ Six Month Journey' Course!
Only available if you choose the 'pay up front' option.
Was - £199
Now - £179
for more info visit:
I'm still buzzing after today but times a ticking I must try and sleep........bring on tomorrow!
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