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Monday 24 August 2009

Previous Week's Analysis

First of all I'd like to thank Adam Todd for inviting me on Juicestorm for an interview. Was an enjoyable experience and the time flew by chatting about all things trading. I've been pleasantly surprised of how positive the feedback has been from it, and more thanks go out to all the friendly comments left on my blog. The feedback was very much needed for my own head, as it has convinced me that its the right thing to pursue and encourages me to make them available to all as soon as I can. More details about the courses will be available soon so just keep an eye out. But if you can't wait then drop me an email and I will pass you on more details I didn't have time to mention on the interview.

Regarding last weeks trading all in all it was a good week. With some solid focus needed on Tuesday to recover my unfortunate incident with my Internet that cost me -251.....as mentioned on a previous post. Then taking some steady profits throughout the week I got myself into a good zone after Wednesday. But looking back I was a little disappointed with myself of the amount of losses that built up over the week. Far too many crept in that took away some well deserved profit. But the reasoning being that the markets were strong, and on occasions i was pushing a bit too hard to earn some extra pennies. In doing so I left myself in a few unwelcome positions.

I feel most of the markets were perfect for swing trading and due to the high profile races it attracted in some nice liquidity. Which in turn offered some great opportunities where markets were not only turning in direction fast, but often the true value was pushed too far in either direction. The reason a market goes sometimes further than you think, is not because someone is watching over your screen and screwing you over the second you enter the market....as it feels like at times. The reason this happens is when people get themselves in situations in which they can't instantly recover from. Like when a trader, or a combination of traders think a market is going 1 way, then it quickly turns and ends up going the other. So when a market goes the wrong direction even further against them you can see the desperation in people needing to get out at the current price. So then more traders push the price as they jump in front of the desperate money wanting out, which accumulates to a market going way beyond where the 'true price' it should be. Purely because peoples reaction to a price has forced people in losing positions to exit there trades in desperation. Their emotions take over and they rush to exit at any price available. When the market then is forced past where it should be, you will see a large bounce back of people rushing on the other side. Seeing value at the high/low position the market has now been pushed to. Also backers/layers will see the market at this position and now it provides them with an opportunity to bid/offer a price at the current position they think as value. This is how a market can fly around so quickly and can lose a scalper all there money in 1 go. Beware of knowing when to scalp and when to swing!

With swing trading you can achieve some massive moves if you can work out where other people are needing to exit there positions. In desperation they simply have to push the price further. In my eyes these are where the odds are in your favour to make profit. These are the odds in which I want to be working with, not the 50/50 situations you see on a regular basis.

Its about reading other peoples reaction to a price movement, not just the numbers on the screen. These are opportunities where you have to be able to read not where the market 'should' be at, but where you think the value is 'now' at. I hope that makes some sense as i did go on a bit of a ramble there :)

I've flown out to the UK for 10 days and arrive in Madrid on the 3rd September. Come back for my local festival - Leeds fest :) So won't be that much going on as far as trading this week. That's why the essay of a post now hehe. I'll make my post that was suggested regarding my setup when I'm back in Madrid.

I needed a plane to catch on Saturday and only could fit in 1hr and 15 mins on the Saturday. An annoying finish to a good week trading Tues - Sat


9 comments:

  1. I would give this a B+ if I were marking it as an essay.
    Once again you impress us with one of your essays Jack.
    You help us with explanations and theories as to why the prices jump at certain times.

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  2. Hi Jack,

    Great update, enjoyed listening to the show on Sat - I'd love to be living abroad doing that. Few months until consistent green daily P/Ls methinks..

    I'd be interested in your training programme if you have more details as well mate..

    Cheers,
    Nick

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  3. Hey Jack - great blog and interview over the weekend. Looking forward to a good read in the months ahead. Can I ask what you do on days like today (Wed 25th Aug) when there were just two meetings and one was delayed. Tough to find any really good moves and liquidity all over the place. How do you do on days like this - and what do you tend to do? Much thanks and best, Ian

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  4. Jack, very nice stuff. And your figures are where loads of us would love to be. Do you use charts, enhanced or betfair historic charts, when you pre-race trade? How much focus do you put on those and how much on the money ladder? Thanks mate and best regards, DH

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  5. Heard the interview on Saturday and was impressed Jack, think too many traders/gamblers out there search for the golden goose hoping someone will spill the beans when in fact they're the ones that already have it. The mindset side of trading is the main thing you need to win at this game as let's face it it's hardly rocket science backing high laying low.

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  6. hello Jack , I was wondering if we could exchange links, I have added you to my blog

    http://betfairdreams.wordpress.com

    Many Thanks
    Sportslover

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  7. Dear Jack I hope you have had a good and profitable week. There is a lot of discussion on blogs and services about reading markets and pre-race preparation. Can I ask how much and what sort of prep you put in before trading, do you analyse the markets and make a rough prediction on a movement you expect and then trade that when it happens. Or do you just turn up and watch the screens and wait for an opportunity? Onwards and upwards, best - Mike Franz

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  8. Dear jack, has the novelty worn off already? Have been dipping in to read thrilling instalments but it looked like you've Jacked it in! Was it something we said? :) Hope you keep the blog up to help you stay focused and to keep us wannabes inspired. Thanks, TimD

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  9. Sorry for the delayed replies guyz, I'm back in Madrid for a while now so I'll be keeping updated with it all.

    Ian - On quiet days you have to be even more disciplined than normal. The smallest move in price can develop into a bad turn against you. Be selective and wait for that killer move that will sort you out for the days profits.

    DH - I've always kept things simple with my trading, I hardly use the graphs, I have none of the bells and whistles of the automation tools, and I dont use the enhanced ladder. I use the 3 ladders so I can have a clear view on all 3 favouries possibly affecting each others price.

    I'll put a link on my blog sports lover.

    Mike Franz - Personally I don't have any pre judgement on what way a market is going. For me there is too many variables on which way a price could go. However I do make a quick judgement of how im going to trade that race when i first see it. However I do believe you can work out roughly where a market can fluctuate between before a markets develops. So much can change the final outcome though. I choose not to have prep in that way myself.

    TimD - Haha the novelty is far frm worn off. I'm only just getting going :) Just my break in the UK took me away from my computer. Back with you now my friend

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