Sunday, April 10, 2011

Grand National Meeting

It's been another fantastic week of top quality horse racing at Aintree. Climaxing at the notorious Grand National on Saturday. Somehow I picked the winner Ballabriggs this year, but was far from confident so I just had a cheeky fiver e/w fun bet. He jumped like a stag and was always looking in contention from the get go.

With all the glam and prestige surrounding the Grand National, we do witness many horses getting badly hurt or even die from this race every year. I think there was 2 that had to be put down this year. So it does beg the question whether to make the course a bit safer for future Grand Nationals. I hate to see these animals land so horribly after a bad jump, but I can't see whoever is in charge rushing to change things any time soon.

I found the Grand National itself very difficult to trade too be honest although I didn't expect much from the race before hand anyways. The high prices/ lack of movement and equal spread of liquidity across countless horses doesn't really suit my trading style too be honest. I have evolved into more of a swing trader over the years and the mad moving markets are more my cuppa tea.

I had a good festival, but didn't reach the heights I achieved at Cheltenham. The first few days went really well but I struggled a little bit on the Saturday to make the most out of a few opportunities. I might look into trading on Betdaq for bigger meetings in the future, as the volumes are apparently a bit more manageable for trading. A healthy amount of liquidity, but not too much sounds quite appealing to me.

It does come down to expectation as well I believe, and I do tend to raise the bar a bit for bigger meetings. Pushing myself can be a positive thing most of the time, but on the Saturday I tried a bit too hard to create opportunities which simply weren't there to take. The only way you can really get on a roll with trading race after race, is to let the opportunities come to you and pounce on them when they arise. When you increase your stakes more profits can be achieved, but this also creates more risk. A double edged sword in which the smallest mistakes can be the difference between a big profit on a race or a break even.

All in all I've had a good week, but I am naturally quite competitive so I'm quite hard on myself at times. I try to never get complacent as this can be very dangerous for your mindset, and I'm constantly looking to work on the holes in my game which I can improve on. The biggest lesson I have taken out of this years Aintree meeting, is to focus on my trading strengths and work to them. I'm going to try and Identify which races I can be really aggressive in, and know which races I need to treat with caution. This should stop me being too aggressive in markets that hold a little too much risk.

My best result over the 3 days came on the 7th:

I'm not sure what happened in the race that made Baby Run hit 8.4! If a bot made a mistake or a combination of people needed to close their positions out? But I couldn't understand it when I looked at the graph after the race. I thought Baby Run was travelling really well throughout so it makes me think it was more of a mistake with a bit of a mad spike. I'm quite tempted to have a go with small stakes in running again when I see things like this. Problem is it takes a different kind of mindset to succeed in running than it does pre - race. I have tried doing both in conjunction with each other in the past at a trading cafe, but I found it quite difficult to go from one mindset to the other. You have no time to even breathe between each race, but saying that I might give it a go again out of interest. Maybe adopt a slightly less active approach in running and stick very small stakes. I'll mention it again if I decide to give it a go.


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